International Journal of Humanities and Social Science

ISSN 2220-8488 (Print), 2221-0989 (Online) 10.30845/ijhss

Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc: Were the Economic Consequences of Pearl Harbor, the Assassination of President John F. Kennedy and 9/11 Predictable for the United States of America?
James K. Mazzarella

This paper looks at the effects of three national tragedies on the economy of the United States of America. Three ten-year periods are analyzed: the ten years following Pearl Harbor, the ten years following the Kennedy Assassination, and the ten years following the 9/11 attack. A historical summary of each period is presented. A multiple regression is then developed that predicts the Change in Real Annual GDP based on the major components of GDP along with a Dummy Variable representing the occurrence of each event. The model is then modified to study the interrelation of all of the components of GDP with the dummy variable. Each interaction component is then is then tested individually to study the effects on Annual Real GDP. Based on the regression results and the historical summary of the times, it appears that the economic consequences of national tragedies are predictable. This is because such events are generally followed by American involvement in a foreign war.

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